by Peter McColl
The old two-party system isn’t just broken; it is actively collapsing under the weight of its own cynical strategy.
While the Tories are in a death spiral, Labour’s attempt to manipulate the political landscape by amplifying the far-right has spectacularly backfired, opening the door for a true progressive alternative.
The Morgan McSweeney strategy was for Labour to amplify Reform. The aim was firstly to destroy the Tories. And then to leave the 2029 election as a squeeze election where Labour could demand that people choose between Reform and Labour.
He’s gone, and yesterday that strategy fell apart.
The Tories have been damaged but aren’t destroyed and Labour are at real risk of being displaced as the home for progressive votes. Because progressive voters weren’t willing to vote for a party that wasn’t progressive.
The data proves this devastating failure. In Gorton and Denton, Labour managed to lose a seat they held with a 13,000 majority in 2024. By chasing voters to their right, they saw their own vote share plummet by over 25%, allowing the Greens to surge from third place to victory with nearly 41% of the vote.
The risk was always that Labour would be destroyed in the same way as the Tories by this approach. And coming third in Gorton and Denton makes that risk much more real.
Under the UK’s archaic First Past the Post system, this cynical McSweeney gamble becomes a threat to Labour’s very existence, with stakes vastly higher than they would be under proportional representation.
FPTP encourages a ‘winner-takes-all’ mentality that fosters a volatile, all-or-nothing political environment. In a system based on proportionality, Labour might see a dip in seats while still retaining a sizable parliamentary block. But here? A relatively small drop in support doesn’t just mean losing a few seats- it can trigger a total electoral wipeout, turning former strongholds into desert landscapes overnight. By squeezing the political center, Labour has left themselves no room for error. If progressive voters abandon them, there is no safety net, and a party can be decimated by a surge from the right or a grassroots swell from the left.
About once every hundred years the party system in the UK shakes itself up. We’re just about due for that shake up.
