Edited 12.35 to include news of Scottish Green Party defections to Your Party.
The results of yesterday’s by-election in Wales and the recent clarity from Scotland send a powerful, unifying message: the only credible way to defeat the far-right is through a confident, mobilised progressive movement. This isn’t just about tactical voting; it’s about political realignment with a distinctly leftward tilt in both nations.
1. The Left Surge in Scotland and Wales
The victory of Plaid Cymru in the Caerphilly by-election—where they overturned a century of Labour dominance and decisively defeated Reform UK—is a seismic event. It demonstrates that the populist, anti-immigrant rhetoric of the far-right can be beaten when a clear, credible, and alternative vision is offered. Plaid’s winning candidate, Lindsay Whittle, framed the victory not just locally but nationally, declaring to the establishment, “You are on your way out after 100-plus years.” This is an explicit signal of political change driven by a party that campaigns on a platform of social democracy and decentralist socialism.
Scottish Left Reinforcement
In Scotland, the political wind is also blowing further left:
SNP Alignment: The Scottish National Party (SNP), already a centre-left party, is being actively pulled to the left even without its formal power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Green Party. The agreement had helped push through policies like rent controls and enhanced environmental commitments, with the goal of building a “greener, fairer, independent Scotland.” Pressure from the Greens, and historic influence from the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), still forces the SNP to continually affirm its progressive credentials- though the current “settling” phase of the Swinney leadership after a series of crises has made the party look less left than it had been.
Edit: 12.35 24.10.25
Today’s Glasgow Green Councillor defections to Your Party, in my opinion, will have little effect on next year’s Holyrood election. I feel these councillors have jumped too soon. Having said that, they are correct in their analysis that the fight against Reform should come from the left- however, Your Party has no clarity at the moment. No policies- and totally foggy on Independence- unionists nor the Indy-gang will have much truck with them. They are in exactly the same position Rise was in during 2015- weeks to go until campaigning begins, and the factions within the amorphous lump that is supposed to be Your Party are organising separate meetings; some have already “decided” who their representatives should be, and many of the same entitled “also-rans” have placed themselves in pole position. In otherwords- careering towards the same result as Rise in 2016 (and with many of the same people kicking down below for position). The only left organisation with any amount of on the ground activists, the SSP, are still, seemingly, outside the sack of cats. The Green defection to the unspecified lump seems to be more about internal disagreements about organisation, rather than moving to something better organised and destined to win. I may be proved wrong.
Douglas Alexander’s Position: The Labour veteran, now Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, Douglas Alexander, recently characterised the far-right surge by stating that Reform UK is “a bad answer to reasonable questions.” While this is a critique of the far-right, it acknowledges the existence of genuine, underlying anxiety—a space that the left must fill with good answers, rather than simply focusing on the right-wing’s collapse. The pressure is now on the Labour in Scotland to deliver a substantive, progressive domestic agenda that can compete with the SNP/Green/SSP progressive informal Yes alliance; an agenda Sarwar seems unable to do in his top down, London/elitist party present structure, regardless of how often he repeats the phrase, “Scottish Labour’s new direction.”
2. Independence for Both Nations
The Caerphilly result and the Scottish political landscape are good signs for the independence movements in both nations because they demonstrate a clear, non-Westminster-centric alternative is possible.
A Progressive Vision: Both Plaid Cymru and the SNP advocate for independence on a progressive, pro-European, and civic nationalist platform. This left-leaning independence is being presented as the best way to escape the austerity and far-right tendencies emanating from Westminster.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has successfully broadened the party’s appeal by showing that its politics can deliver results in Labour heartlands, solidifying his authority and demonstrating that moderation—without an immediate demand for a referendum—can still deliver radical change. This ability to win in traditional working-class areas provides a model for independence movements to expand their base.
The SNP’s John Swinney continues to roll out new independence proposals, explicitly arguing that a separate Scotland is the best way to “escape Nigel Farage.” This framing successfully links independence with the preservation of a progressive social and political culture, providing a strong ideological foundation for the campaign.
The Imperative: Get the Vote Out
The far-right does not disappear when one seat is lost; they rely on apathy and division. The lesson from Caerphilly is not that the far-right is weak, but that a united, motivated, and well-campaigned-for progressive alternative can defeat it.
For all those who want to see the far-right defeated, the time for commentating from the sidelines is over. We NEED to help campaign, to volunteer, and to make sure the vote gets out on the day in the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections, and later in the General Election. Complacency is the oxygen of the extreme right. The progressive movement must relentlessly focus on grassroots activism to ensure that the surge of support for the left-wing, nationalist, and anti-far-right parties is translated into actual votes.
